Carbon Dioxide Milestone Revised by NOAA

May 16, 2013
The Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions at Duke University

The Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions at Duke University

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced last week that carbon dioxide concentrations at the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii surpassed the milestone 400 parts per million for a sustained period. NOAA has since revised the figure—on the basis of computer analysis—saying its May 9 readings actually remained fractions of a point below the historic level, coming in at 399.89. A second monitoring program run by the Scripps Institute for Oceanography, The New York Times reports, continues to show a level of 400.8 parts per million for the same period. The numbers, scientists said, are a reminder of the long-term trend in greenhouse gases.

“The last time in the Earth’s history when we saw similar levels of CO2 in the atmosphere was probably about 4.5 million years ago when the world was warmer on average by three or four degrees Celsius than it is today,” said Professor Sir Brian Hoskins, director of the Grantham Institute for Climate Change at the Imperial College London. “There was no apparent ice sheet on Greenland, sea levels were much higher, and the world was a very different place.”

A first draft of the congressionally mandated National Climate Assessment shares more data on how the climate is changing; the final version is due out in early 2014. Among the highlights: the average temperature in the U.S. has increased by nearly 1.5 degrees Fahrenheit since 1895, and sea levels are expected to rise another 1 to 4 feet this century. Another study, which looked at 50,000 common animals and plants, says climate change could lead to the loss of more than half of these plants and one third of the animals.

McCarthy Gets Go Ahead

After boycotting the first hearing a week ago, Republican lawmakers agreed to show up to vote today on whether to move the nomination for Gina McCarthy to head the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to the full Senate. The Senate Environment and Public Works Committee voted 10-8 along party lines to move McCarthy forward in the process. No date has been set for the floor vote, and Sen. Roy Blunt still maintains a hold on McCarthy’s nomination over a dispute to repair the levee system on the Mississippi River.

Natural Gas Exports, Ethanol Topics of Debate

The boom in domestic production of natural gas has lowered prices and stirred debate regarding the export of the resource. A decision by the Obama administration on whether to approve applications for some 20 natural gas export terminals could come in “weeks and not months,” David Leiter, president of ML Strategies LLC, told Bloomberg. If all were approved, facilities could ship nearly 41 percent of the total U.S. production of natural gas this year and lead to further increases in hydraulic fracturing. This week, the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee held the first of a series of forums on natural gas. Up next week: exports.

Meanwhile, a new House bill seeks to modify the renewable fuel standard (RFS) to let natural gas-based ethanol qualify as a renewable. Currently, the rule limits eligible feedstocks to renewable sources such as corn, soybeans and switchgrass.

Rainforest Losses Could Affect Energy Output, Agriculture

Two new studies in the journals Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences and Environmental Research Letters look at threats to the Amazon rainforest. The first finds extensive deforestation will leave less water in nearby rivers to run the hydropower dams that countries such as Brazil are investing billions of dollars to create. Scientists estimate that Brazil’s controversial Bel Monte Dam—one of the world’s largest hydropower projects—could deliver roughly 30 percent less power if forest loss continues. The loss is equivalent to the energy consumption of 4 million Brazilians.

Making more land available in the Amazon rainforest for farming could actually produce fewer “wins” for the agricultural sector, according to the Environmental Research Letters work. Why? Loss of trees not only reduces the capacity of the Amazon to act as a natural carbon sink, but also increases temperature and decreases precipitation. “These climate feedbacks, usually ignored in previous studies, impose reduction in precipitation that would lead agricultural expansion in Amazonia to become self-defeating: the more agriculture expands, the less productive it becomes,” researchers said. Google and Carnegie Mellon share a time lapse look at deforestation’s effect from 1984 to 2012.

The Climate Post offers a rundown of the week in climate and energy news. It is produced each Thursday by Duke University’s Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions.

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Arctic Experiencing More Than Just Melt

May 9, 2013
The Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions at Duke University

The Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions at Duke University

Carbon dioxide emissions are soaking into Arctic waters and affecting the chemistry of the ocean, a new report by the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program shows. Increasing carbon dioxide emissions and freshwater runoff challenge the ocean’s ability to neutralize acidification—an imbalance caused by absorption of the greenhouse gas from the air. The study said the Arctic’s cold water makes it more vulnerable to absorbing carbon dioxide, lowering pH levels and thereby increasing acidity.

“We have already passed critical thresholds,” said Richard Bellerby, report chairman. “Even if we stop emissions now, acidification will last tens of thousands of years.”

In fact, the average acidity of surface ocean waters is now roughly 30 percent higher than at the start of the Industrial Revolution. This month, experts predict carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere to reach 400 parts per million for a sustained period of time—40 percent more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere than before that revolution began. Among the report’s other key findings: Arctic marine ecosystems are highly likely to undergo significant change, acidification may contribute to the alteration of fish species, acidity is not uniform across the Arctic, and acidity rise is the result of an uptake in carbon dioxide emissions from human activities.

Negotiating Climate Policy

Nations gathering for the week-long climate talks in Bonn, Germany, moved closer to solidifying details for a 2015 international climate agreement that would take effect in 2020. Although there were no breakthroughs in bridging the divide between the U.S. and China, participants began to lay the groundwork for progress at November’s climate summit in Poland. More specifically, a U.S. proposal to move away from a successor to the 1997 Kyoto Protocol and let countries draft their own emissions reduction plans gained support at the meeting. The current level of pledges to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is far too low, says U.N. Climate Change Secretariat Christiana Figueres. “The challenge for the 2015 agreement is precisely to bridge the gap,” Figueres said. “The process is not on track with respect to the demands of science.”

In the European Union, politicians announced plans for a “rescue attempt” centered on the union’s carbon trading system, which is designed to provide incentives to industry to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The European Union Parliament rejected a proposal to backload the auctioning of credits within the system last month, a plan that would have removed a surplus of emissions permits from the system dubbed the world’s largest carbon market. A second vote determining whether to withhold carbon permits from the oversupplied market to address the current imbalance is expected by July.

Obama’s Energy and Environment Team Takes Shape

With Ernest Moniz—a Massachusetts Institute of Technology physics professor—now confirmed as the Energy Secretary, the U.S. Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works was scheduled to vote on whether U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) nominee Gina McCarthy would get her turn in front of the full Senate. All eight Republican lawmakers on the committee boycotted the hearing on the vote today, contending that McCarthy hasn’t answered several questions fully. At least two Republicans were needed to move ahead with a vote, according to committee rules.

“As you know, all Republicans on our EPW committee have asked EPA to honor five very reasonable and basic requests in conjunction with the nomination of Gina McCarthy, which focus on openness and transparency,” the lawmakers wrote in a letter to Committee Chairwoman Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.). “While you have allowed EPA adequate time to fully respond before any mark-up on the nomination, EPA has stonewalled on four of the five categories. Because of this, no Republican member of the committee will attend [Thursday]’s mark-up if it is held.” Chairwoman Boxer vowed to move McCarthy’s nomination through the committee, even if it required her to change the committee rules to remove the requirement for Republican attendance for a quorum.

Meanwhile, recently confirmed Interior Secretary Sally Jewell made her first appearance, since winning confirmation last month, to defend the department’s proposed fiscal 2014 budget.

The Climate Post offers a rundown of the week in climate and energy news. It is produced each Thursday by Duke University’s Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions.

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U.S. Oil Reserves Higher Than Previously Thought

May 2, 2013
The Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions at Duke University

The Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions at Duke University

According to a new U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) assessment, two formations in the central United States hold three times the amount of natural gas and two times the amount of oil than the federal government previously estimated. Concentrated in the Dakotas and Montana, the Bakken and Three Forks formations are expected to hold 7.4 billion barrels of recoverable oil and 6.7 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. The Three Forks formation, which alone contains 3.73 billion barrels of oil, was not included in the last USGS assessment in 2008—helping to explain the large jump.

“These world-class formations contain even more energy resource potential than previously understood, which is important information as we continue to reduce our nation’s dependence on foreign sources of oil,” said Interior Secretary Sally Jewell.

The same week, Jewell announced the U.S. Department of Interior will release revised, draft rules regulating hydraulic fracturing operations that have increasingly recovered tough-to-reach fossil fuel sources—particularly in North Dakota. The rules would only apply to hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling on public lands and would establish new requirements for disclosure of chemicals and well integrity. The draft is expected in the coming weeks.

Senate Votes on Clean Energy

A House committee in North Carolina’s state legislature last week voted against a bill to repeal the state’s Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Portfolio Standard (REPS). However, a Senate Committee this week pushed through the bill, which would keep the mandate at 3 percent, but eliminate it later on.

The REPS enacted by a 2007 North Carolina law had no expiration and, in addition to the overall renewable requirements, uniquely required utilities to get 0.07 percent of their electricity from hog waste now and 0.20 percent by 2018. So far, little of the set-aside for hog waste-derived energy has been met. A new study by the Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions and the Duke Carbon Offsets Initiative provides a first step toward an informed strategy to increase swine gas energy production. Using a comparative modeling analysis considering individual and centralized approaches, the report finds that injecting biogas collected from an optimized network of farms into the natural gas pipeline could be a cost-effective approach to meeting state REPS.

As Carbon Dioxide Levels Rise, International Climate Negotiations Begin

As early as this month, carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere are expected to reach a new milestone, rising above 400 parts per million for a sustained period of time. Carbon dioxide levels in excess of 400 parts per million have already been recorded at the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii, but they tend to fluctuate hourly. The milestone is significant because it illustrates how dramatically humans have altered the atmosphere in a few generations, says Mother Nature Network. In 1988, atmospheric carbon dioxide was about 350 parts per million.

“I wish it weren’t true but it looks like the world is going to blow through the 400 ppm level without losing a beat,” said Ralph Keeling, a geologist with the Scripps Institution of Oceanography. “At this pace we’ll hit a 450 ppm within a few decades. Each year, the concentration of CO2 at Mauna Loa rises and falls in a sawtooth fashion, with the next year higher than the year before. The peak of the sawtooth typically comes in May. If the CO2 levels don’t top 400 ppm in May 2013, they almost certainly will next year.”

The Washington Post looks at President Obama’s record on climate and environment so far. In Bonn, groups gathered for a week-long meeting to focus on the “scope, design and structure” of the 2015 climate agreement that would take effect in 2020. This agreement would replace the Kyoto Protocol, which was adopted in 1997 to limit pollution.

The Climate Post offers a rundown of the week in climate and energy news. It is produced each Thursday by Duke University’s Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions.

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European Union Rejects Carbon Market Solution

April 18, 2013
The Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions at Duke University

The Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions at Duke University

Editor’s Note: The Climate Post will take a break from circulation next week. We will return to regular postings May 2. 

The European Union Parliament rejected a proposal to backload the auctioning of credits within its Emissions Trading Scheme this week. The proposed “backloading” plan would have removed a surplus of emissions permits from the world’s largest carbon market—potentially saving it from collapse and making fossil fuels more expensive for utilities and factories to burn. The surplus, partly a result of the recession, had driven carbon prices down from 25 euros in 2008 to just 5 euros per ton in February. As a result, the permits were no longer doing their intended job of encouraging manufacturers and utilities to invest in cleaner fuels and new technology. Announcement of the ruling sent permit prices to their lowest yet and dealt a blow to partner Australia. The country intends to link to the EU carbon market in 2015.

“We will continue with our plans to link with the European emissions trading scheme from 1 July, 2015,” said Australia Climate Minister Greg Combet. “But this year’s budget, as is usual practice by Treasury, will include a revised forecast for a carbon price in 2015-16.”

On Wednesday, EU Commissioner for Climate Action Connie Hedegaard vowed to fight to save the system through new measures that include restricting rights to carbon permits and allowing for reviews of the number of permits companies receive for free.

EPA Says U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Declined

A new report by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) suggests greenhouse gas emissions in the United States dropped 1.6 percent from 2010 to 2011. Since 2005, that number has decreased 6.9 percent. The agency attributed the drop to factors such as improvements in vehicle fuel efficiency and mild winter weather.

Electricity generation by power plants was termed the largest source of emissions, accounting for 33 percent of the 2011 total, according to the report. The EPA missed an April 13 deadline to issue a final rule limiting greenhouse gas emissions from new power plants, instead delaying release indefinitely on Friday. In its draft form, the rule would have made building new coal plants difficult. The Washington Post indicated that the EPA will alter the rule to better withstand legal challenge, including potentially establishing separate standards for gas-fired and coal-fired plants.

Meanwhile, little progress has been made to reduce the carbon content of the world’s energy supply over the last two decades, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). In its third annual report tracking clean energy progress, the IEA found the resurgence of coal counters many of the greenhouse gas benefits of clean energy production. “The drive to clean up the world’s energy system has stalled,” said IEA Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven. “Despite much talk by world leaders, and despite a boom in renewable energy over the last decade, the average unit of energy produced today is basically as dirty as it was 20 years ago.” Renewables are a bright spot in the data, which reveal that solar and wind technologies grew by 42 and 19 percent, respectively, from 2011 to 2012.

Nuclear Leak Prompts Review, New Guidelines

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has begun reviewing the decommissioning process for Japan’s Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant, the site of a 2011 nuclear meltdown following a tsunami. Multiple leaks have been detected at the plant, and the IAEA will be analyzing the melted reactors and radiation levels.

The EPA, meanwhile, has been prompted by the disaster to rewrite rules to enlarge the focus of U.S. nuclear disaster response beyond immediate emergency response to long-term cleanup efforts. A new draft of recommended procedures will address the duration of evacuations, limits to radiation exposure over time and other concerns.

The Climate Post offers a rundown of the week in climate and energy news. It is produced each Thursday by Duke University’s Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions.

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Moniz, McCarthy Face Questions at Senate Confirmation Hearings

April 11, 2013
The Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions at Duke University

The Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions at Duke University

Senate confirmation hearings for Ernest Moniz and Gina McCarthy—President Barack Obama’s appointees to oversee the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)—began this week.

For Moniz, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology physicist, committee grilling started Tuesday. Natural gas exports were a popular topic throughout Moniz’s hearing—signaling his likely support for exports as a way to combat climate change. With some pressing, Moniz said he was open to reviewing a recent study commissioned by the DOE that found boosting natural-gas exports would yield economic benefits for the United States. The analysis has received some criticism for using outdated information and not fully examining the regional effects of exporting liquefied natural gas to markets in Europe and Asia. “We certainly want to make sure that we are using data that is relevant to the decision at hand,” Moniz said.

While Moniz ducked questions about his support of a carbon tax, he did endorse Obama’s “all of the above” energy strategy and said he would push for renewable energy if he was confirmed. “The increase in U.S. unconventional oil production, combined with increased vehicle efficiency, will continue to reduce American oil imports and reduce our trade deficit,” said Moniz. “New technology development and deployment can and must further reduce the associated environmental footprint.”

In all, Politico reports, the hearing went smoothly for the former DOE undersecretary, and Moniz looks to be on the path for approval (subscription) that may refocus the department on its research and development roots. McCarthy’s hearing began at 10:30 ET today and focused on the practices of the EPA and the future of coal. Republicans also pushed her (subscription) on transparency, the use of fictitious e-mails and the science of decision making.

Sally Jewell, Obama’s pick for Interior Secretary, won Senate confirmation Wednesday.

Release of 2014 Budget Details Energy Priorities

The hearings—which put the focus on Obama’s regulatory agenda—come amid the unveiling of Obama’s roughly $3.8 trillion budget proposal, which shed light on Obama’s spending priorities.

Set to begin October 1, the budget would boost clean-tech spending by 40 percent over current levels, cut net oil imports in half by 2020 and seek to eliminate some tax breaks for the oil and gas industry. It also includes the $2 billion Energy Security Trust, which aims to shift America’s cars and trucks off oil entirely by investing in research for advances in electricity, domestically produced natural gas and homegrown biofuels. Moniz hinted in his Tuesday confirmation hearing that the United States spends too little on energy research—a statement The Washington Post examined in depth.

Climate Science in Education Standards Released this Week

New national science teaching guidelines, delving more deeply into the science of climate change, were released Tuesday. The Next Generation Science Standards were developed by a consortium of 26 state governments and several groups representing scientists and teachers. The guidelines are the first set of science standards to come out in 15 years and push more “critical thinking” and less memorization.

“There was never a debate about whether climate change would be in there,” said Heidi Schweingruber of the National Research Council, one of the key organizations responsible for development of the guidelines. “It is a fundamental part of science, and so that’s what our work is based on, the scientific consensus.”

Although states are not required to adopt the rules, 26 states—including Arizona, California, Iowa, Kansas and New York—are considering doing so.

The Climate Post offers a rundown of the week in climate and energy news. It is produced each Thursday by Duke University’s Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions.

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EPA Proposes Clean Air Measures for Gasoline, Finalizes MATS Rules

April 4, 2013
The Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions at Duke University

The Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions at Duke University

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) on Friday announced its proposed Tier 3 rules, which would reduce allowable amounts of sulfur in gasoline and help automobiles’ catalytic converters capture more pollutants. The new measures would reduce sulfur in gasoline by more than 60 percent—from the present average of 30 parts per million to 10 parts per million by 2017—an environmental benefit comparable to taking 33 million cars off the road. The EPA measure would increase the price of gasoline by less than a penny per gallon but deliver up to $23 billion in health benefits by 2030, according to The Washington Post. The oil industry, however, points to its own study, which suggests a 6 to 9 cent rise per gallon. Under the plan, fuel vapor emissions would drop to nearly zero, making it easier for the auto industry to meet tougher standards for new-car tailpipe emissions.

The Tier 3 standards would yield gasoline sulfur levels similar to levels already being achieved in California, Japan, South Korea and other countries in Europe and elsewhere, according to the EPA. The proposed rules will soon be open for public comment.

The EPA also issued the final rule for the Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS) for new coal- and oil-fired power plants—raising limits slightly from those laid out in December 2011. The final rule sets mercury emissions limits at 0.003 pound/GWh, up from 0.0002 pound/GWh in the previous rule.

The agency also filed a request with the U.S. Supreme Court Monday to review a decision by the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals that tossed out the Cross State Air Pollution Rule. The rule required cuts in soot and smog-forming pollution that blows across state lines.

Spills Thrust Keystone XL into the Spotlight

Two oil spills, one in Arkansas from a pipeline rupture and one in Minnesota from a train derailment, stirred new criticism of and debate about the proposed Keystone XL pipeline, which would carry crude oil from Canada to the Gulf of Mexico. The fuel passing through Keystone is the same type that leaked from ExxonMobil’s Pegasus pipeline in Arkansas, a fact that prompted some environmental groups to promise protests should President Barack Obama approve the project. Keystone has also been criticized by scientist James Hansen, who retired from NASA this week to pursue campaigning to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Even so, a new poll shows broad bipartisan support for the pipeline, with 66 percent favoring its approval and construction. Obama told House Republicans last month that a decision on Keystone XL would come soon.

U.S. Coal Use Rising

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), natural gas prices have risen significantly, increasing coal-fired electric generation. In fact, the EIA finds natural gas prices have risen 50 percent since April 2012. If prices continue to climb, the agency predicts coal use will increase 18 percent by 2040.

The Climate Post offers a rundown of the week in climate and energy news. It is produced each Thursday by Duke University’s Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions.

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Details of Obama’s Plan to Reduce Dependence on Foreign Oil Emerge

March 21, 2013
The Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions at Duke University

The Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions at Duke University

The White House has released more details about the Energy Security Trust that President Barack Obama first mentioned in February’s State of the Union address. Obama introduced the plan—which aims to reduce the country’s dependence on foreign oil, improve vehicle fuel efficiency and protect consumers from gas price spikes—during a speech at Chicago’s Argonne National Laboratory. “By investing in our energy security,” he noted, “we are helping our businesses succeed and we’re creating good middle class jobs right here in America. The only way to really break this cycle of spiking oil prices—the only way to break that cycle for good—is to shift our cars entirely off oil.”

The Energy Security Trust focuses on shifting America’s cars and trucks off oil entirely by investing in research for advances in electricity, domestically produced natural gas and homegrown biofuels as cost-effective alternatives to fossil fuel. Over the course of 10 years, the trust will provide $2 billion in research dollars from federal oil and gas development revenue.

The plan, the White House said, builds on an earlier report and on strategies that resulted in reductions in carbon dioxide of 13 percent since 2007, highlighted in a new study by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). It is intended to solidify America’s position as a world leader in advanced transportation technology. Feelings regarding the measure, however, are mixed. Some are praising the investment in research and development funding in light of sequester cuts, while others see little success for the proposal without a dramatic increase in oil and gas leasing on federal. Energy production on the nation’s federal lands would be among the top responsibilities for Sally Jewell, whose nomination to the post of Interior Secretary was advanced by the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee today.

Meanwhile, a new report states that by 2050 it is possible to cut car petroleum use by 80 percent—a much easier feat than cutting carbon dioxide emissions by a similar amount.

EPA Could Delay Climate Rules for Power Plants

A year ago, the EPA unveiled the proposed New Source Performance Standards, which would require all new coal- and gas-fired power plants built in the U.S. to emit no more than 1,000 pounds of carbon dioxide per megawatt hour of electricity produced. According to The Washington Post, the Obama administration is likely to miss its April 13 deadline for finalizing the rules and may be considering revising them. Some industry critics have expressed concern with the EPA’s proposed rule. Four moderate Senate Democrats also urged the President in a letter to scale back provisions for coal-fired plants. Revamping the new-source rules to lay out a separate standard for coal-fired power plants could take another six months, according to legal experts, but it might give the EPA a better chance of defending the rule in court.

Biofuels Suffer from High Prices

The punishment Midwest corn yields took from the drought has pushed corn prices so high that nearly 10 percent of the nation’s ethanol plants stopped production this past year. The credits refiners use to meet the EPA’s renewable fuel mandate that results in ethanol being blended into gasoline are spiking, too. The 10-fold increase in the price of the credits is causing some to be concerned about an increase in gasoline prices. In fact, this year U.S. drivers could face an increase in these prices of nearly $13 billion.

The Climate Post offers a rundown of the week in climate and energy news. It is produced each Thursday by Duke University’s Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions.

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Carbon Tax Is a Popular Topic in Washington

March 14, 2013
The Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions at Duke University

The Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions at Duke University

Since China announced it will hold off plans to introduce a carbon tax, the idea has generated some activity on Capitol Hill.

Lawmakers on Tuesday proposed a draft bill that would charge the largest industrial polluters a fee for, or carbon tax on, their fossil-fuel emissions. The plan, proposed by Rep. Henry Waxman (D-Calif.), Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.), Rep. Earl Blumenauer (D-Ore.), and Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii), includes three possible per-ton prices for carbon pollution—$15, $25 or $30—and annual cost increases ranging from 2 percent to 8 percent to ensure that emissions continue to decrease. The new bill solicits feedback on how revenue (subscription required) generated by the fee or tax should be spent but proposes that proceeds go toward mitigating energy costs for consumers, reducing the deficit, protecting jobs, decreasing the tax liability for businesses and individuals and investing in other activities that could reduce carbon pollution.

The Waxman-Whitehouse draft, which has not been formally introduced into Congress or even finalized, is one of a few carbon tax proposals circulating in Washington. A measure by Sens. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) and Bernie Sanders (I-VT) was released last month. The same week as the release of the Waxman-Whitehouse draft, Republicans introduced a resolution that opposed a national carbon tax, citing its threat to the economy and businesses.

Two studies of a carbon tax have produced very different results. A study by the National Association of Manufacturers finds that a carbon tax starting at $20 per ton and rising 4 percent yearly would result in an economic slowdown. Meanwhile, a report by the Brookings Institution finds that a carbon tax could have benefits—including improving environmental outcomes and increasing economic efficiency.

A national poll released recently by Duke University found that 29 percent of the respondents strongly or somewhat supported a carbon tax. There was much more support surrounding a clean energy standard or other traditional measures to regulate greenhouse gas emissions.

Will “Fire Ice” Discovery Revolutionize the Energy Industry?

Japan has produced methane from methane hydrates, a fossil fuel that behaves like ice, from deep under the ocean for the first time. Deposits of the fuel source, known as “fire ice,” may be large enough to supply the country’s natural gas needs for years. An estimated 1.1 trillion cubic meters of gas are trapped off Shikoku Island. Japan hopes to convert the trapped methane into natural gas that could help address recent energy woes, but the Japanese government says it is still at least five years away from commercial extraction. Japanese officials point to the recent gas boom in the United States as evidence that complex drilling processes can yield big results—a fact that has Australia worried. Japan is Australia’s top natural gas customer.

The fuel source is also being explored in Canada and the United States, with the latter funding 14 research projects on methane hydrates. The U.S. Geological Survey estimates that naturally occurring gas hydrates could contain more than 100,000 trillion cubic feet of natural gas—potentially more organic carbon than the world’s coal, oil and other forms of natural gas combined. Recent mappings off the North Carolina and South Carolina coasts show large offshore accumulations of methane hydrate, but the potential environmental effects of drilling for hydrates remain little understood.

The Future of Nuclear Power

Monday marked the second anniversary of Japan’s tsunami and the Fukushima nuclear disaster. Before the meltdown at the Fukushima Daiichi plant, Japan was the third largest consumer of nuclear energy, behind the United States. Now just two of the country’s 50 operable reactors are online. With plans to phase out nuclear power by 2040, the long-term energy strategy is expected to bring higher electricity rates for consumers this year.

The future of nuclear remains less certain worldwide. The head of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) recently told more than 3,000 industry executives, experts and government regulators that when it comes to commercial reactors they must be ready to deal with the unknown.

A new report by the Union of Concerned Scientists is more critical of the industry. It points to safety mishaps at nuclear plants across the United States in 2012. The study, released shortly after the NRC annual report card, details a dozen events.

The Climate Post offers a rundown of the week in climate and energy news. It is produced each Thursday by Duke University’s Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions.

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Obama Announces Leaders of His Energy, Environment Team

March 7, 2013
The Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions at Duke University

The Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions at Duke University

After weeks of speculation, President Barack Obama officially announced his selections to lead the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) on Monday. Gina McCarthy was chosen to lead the EPA, replacing Lisa Jackson, while Ernest Moniz will take over as energy secretary, replacing Steven Chu. Together, Obama said, they are charged with “making sure that we’re investing in American energy, that we’re doing everything that we can to combat the threat of climate change.” They join Sally Jewell, named to the Department of the Interior last month. Jewell’s confirmation hearing is slated to take place today.

Assuming Moniz and McCarthy win confirmation from the Senate, what can we expect them to focus on? Using the power of executive authority, quite a bit, reports The Washington Post. On the list: reducing global hydrofluorocarbon emissions, tightening emissions from medium and heavy-duty vehicles, new energy efficiency standards, and using the Clean Air Act pursue stricter rules for natural gas and methane emissions and cap greenhouse gas emissions from power plants.

For the last four years, McCarthy has been working with the EPA as the assistant administrator for the Office of Air and Radiation. Under her leadership, the EPA proposed the first regulations to cap emissions from new power plants under the Clean Air Act in 2012 and the Mercury and Air Toxic Standards (MATS) in 2011. A large number of pollution rules that have been postponed or delayed in the courts—such as the cross state air controls for power plants—will come up in Obama’s second term. In this new role McCarthy could face considerable opposition from industry polluters, which some say could be worse than her predecessor.

Moniz, director of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Energy Initiative, is a former Energy Department undersecretary. “Ernie knows that we can produce more energy and grow our economy while still taking care of our air, water and our climate,” Obama said when he introduced Moniz Monday. The nomination of the MIT physicist comes with mixed reactions, as Moniz is a known advocate of shale gas and nuclear energy. The coal industry, however, is much more welcoming of Moniz than McCarthy, GreenWire reports (subscription required) because making coal fit into a low-carbon world has been a focus of his research.

Climate Change to Open Arctic Shipping Routes

As a result of climate change, by mid-century ships could sail directly over the North Pole, according to a new study. The Northwest Passage is now only accessible to a few icebreaker ships on average one summer of every seven years. Through computer simulations using independent climate forecasts for the years 2040 to 2059, researchers at the University of California, Los Angeles, predict the route—20 percent short than today’s most trafficked Arctic shipping lane—to be passable more frequently with warming of the North Pole that will lead to record low levels of summer sea ice.

“The development is both exciting from an economic development point of view and worrisome in terms of safety, both for the arctic environment and for the ships themselves,” said lead researcher Laurence Smith, who mapped the likeliest routes, usable by icebreakers and other open water vessels, during the month of September. The price of oil and locations of natural gas will be big determinants for whether or not Arctic navigation increases, the authors said. Numerous obstacles, aside from sea ice, stand in the way of increased navigation in the region. Just last month, Shell called off drilling exploration efforts after several mishaps.

House Votes to Increase Funds for Satellite

Sequester budget cuts had threatened to impose a two- to three-year delay in the production and deployment of the first next-generation weather satellites being developed by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) through a program called GOES-R. Wednesday, the House of Representatives voted to approve legislation that could breathe new life into the program that aims to create more timely and accurate weather forecasts. The spending bill would set aside $802 million for NOAA’s satellites. The catch—it must be approved by the Senate, and even if passed the new figure is still subject to additional cuts.

Record Carbon Dioxide Spike

Researchers at NOAA say the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere rose significantly in 2012. Carbon dioxide levels jumped by 2.67 parts per million since 2011 to a total just under 395 parts per million and could make it unlikely global warming can be limited another 2 degrees Celsius. The spike is the second highest since record keeping began in 1959, surpassed only by the 1998 increase of 2.93 parts per million.

The Climate Post offers a rundown of the week in climate and energy news. It is produced each Thursday by Duke University’s Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions.

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In State of the Union Obama Targets Energy, Climate

February 14, 2013

The Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions at Duke University

Amid discussion of gun control, immigration reform and deficit reduction, President Barack Obama touched on his agenda for energy and climate in his State of the Union address Tuesday. Picking up where he left off in his second inaugural address, Obama took his focus on climate change one step further, calling on Congress to enact legislation to cut carbon pollution and increase clean energy production. He made it clear he intends to act with or without lawmakers.

“But if Congress won’t act soon to protect future generations, I will,” Obama said. “I will direct my cabinet to come up with executive actions we can take now and in the future to reduce pollution, prepare our communities for the consequences of climate change, and speed the transition to more sustainable sources of energy.”

Topping the list of actions for Congress: a market-based solution similar to cap-and trade legislation John McCain and Joe Lieberman worked on a few years ago. A cap-and-trade system—like the one established in California—would create a cap, or limit, on industrial greenhouse gas emissions that would decrease over time. At the federal level, it died in the Senate in 2010. Sens. Bernie Sanders and Barbara Boxer rolled out a bill that would levy a fee on large fossil fuel facilities—building off the momentum of the State of the Union (subscription required). Wednesday the Environment and Public Works Committee held a briefing to discuss the latest findings in climate science research.

During the speech, Obama offered no details on steps he would take if Congress fails to act. While there was no mention of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s regulations of power plants, The National Journal reports he is on track to use his executive authority to introduce rules for controlling carbon emissions from existing coal-fired power plants under the Clean Air Act this year. This would go beyond mandates currently proposed for new facilities.

Energy Trust Would Drive New Research to Reduce Oil Dependence

In addition to taking executive action to curb climate change, Obama proposed using the revenues from federal oil and gas production to fund an Energy Security Trust. This trust would “drive new research and technology to shift our cars and trucks off oil for good.” The $2 billion investment would support research into a range of technologies, including homegrown biofuels and electric vehicles. It would not require expanding drilling. The Hill notes that creating such a trust would require an Act of Congress, and some Republican lawmakers are already calling the plan a “nonstarter.”

Obama also wants to work with Congress to encourage cleaner-burning natural gas. “The natural gas boom has led to cleaner power and greater energy independence,” he said. “We need to encourage that. And that’s why my administration will keep cutting red tape and speeding up new oil and gas permits. That’s got to be part of an all-of-the-above plan. But I also want to work with this Congress to encourage the research and technology that helps natural gas burn even cleaner and protects our air and our water.” Merrill Matthews at Forbes is skeptical of Obama’s promises to expedite the permitting process for oil and gas drilling, accusing Interior Secretary Ken Salazar of withdrawing public lands that had already undergone a lengthy environmental review and been approved for oil and gas leasing.

Is the Speech a Roadmap for 2013?

The answers are mixed. Some liked what they heard. Success of the address, USA Today reports, depends on the success of the policies. The President has delivered variable results on proposals he’s put forth in four previous State of the Union addresses, reports Politico. With Republicans in control of the House, CBS News’s Brian Montopoli says a resurrection of a cap-and-trade bill like the one Obama proposed in 2009 is doubtful.

Meanwhile, a new national poll by Duke University’s Sanford School of Public Policy and Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions suggests many Americans haven’t formed an opinion about a cap-and-trade approach; with support low, 36 percent are neither for nor against. It also found only 29 percent of Americans strongly or somewhat support a carbon tax and 64 percent strongly or somewhat favor regulating greenhouse gas emissions from power plants, factories and cars. However, the percentage of Americans who think the climate is changing, and that the change is a result of human activity, have reached their highest levels since 2007.

The Climate Post offers a rundown of the week in climate and energy news. It is produced each Thursday by Duke University’s Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions.

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